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Ciclos económicos em Portugal e respostas de política económica (2000–2025)
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O presente trabalho analisa os ciclos económicos em Portugal no período 2000–2025 e as respostas de política económica que os acompanharam. Identificam-se quatro subperíodos distintos que incluem a fase de integração monetária (2000–2007), a crise financeira global e da dívida soberana (2008–2014), a recuperação e o choque pandémico (2015–2021), e o ciclo inflacionista pós-pandémico (2022–2025). A análise empírica baseia-se em indicadores macroeconómicos recolhidos junto ao Eurostat, INE, Banco de Portugal e Comissão Europeia. Os resultados evidenciam que o ciclo II (2008–2014) foi o mais grave, enquanto o ciclo III (2015–2021) se caracterizou por uma recuperação gradual interrompida pelo choque exógeno da pandemia em 2020. O ciclo IV (2022–2025) regista a primeira recuperação em forma de V e os primeiros excedentes orçamentais da série analisada. Verificou-se uma eficácia diferenciada da política monetária do BCE e da política orçamental portuguesa, resultantes da pertença a uma união monetária e aos condicionalismos do Pacto de Estabilidade e Crescimento.
This study analysis the economic cycles in Portugal over the period 2000-2025 and the economic policy responses adopted throughout these cycles. Four distinct subperiods were identified. The monetary integration phase (2000-200), the global financial and sovereign debt crisis (2008-2014), the recovery period and the pandemic shock (2015-2021), and the post-pandemic inflationary cycle (2022-2025). The empirical analysis is based on macroeconomic indicators collected from Eurostat, INE, the Bank of Portugal and the European Commission. The results show that Cycle II (2008-2014) was the most severe, whereas Cycle III (2015-2021) was characterised by gradual recovery interrupted by the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Cycle IV (2022-2025) recorded the first V- shaped recovery and the first budget surpluses of the period analysed. The findings also reveal differing degrees of effectiveness of the Europeans Central Bank monetary policy and Portugal’s fiscal policy, reflecting the constraints associated with the membership of a monetary union and compliance whit the Stability and Growth Pact.
This study analysis the economic cycles in Portugal over the period 2000-2025 and the economic policy responses adopted throughout these cycles. Four distinct subperiods were identified. The monetary integration phase (2000-200), the global financial and sovereign debt crisis (2008-2014), the recovery period and the pandemic shock (2015-2021), and the post-pandemic inflationary cycle (2022-2025). The empirical analysis is based on macroeconomic indicators collected from Eurostat, INE, the Bank of Portugal and the European Commission. The results show that Cycle II (2008-2014) was the most severe, whereas Cycle III (2015-2021) was characterised by gradual recovery interrupted by the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Cycle IV (2022-2025) recorded the first V- shaped recovery and the first budget surpluses of the period analysed. The findings also reveal differing degrees of effectiveness of the Europeans Central Bank monetary policy and Portugal’s fiscal policy, reflecting the constraints associated with the membership of a monetary union and compliance whit the Stability and Growth Pact.
Descrição
Projeto de Graduação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Licenciado em Ciências Empresariais.
Palavras-chave
Ciclos económicos Portugal Política monetária Política orçamental Hiato do produto Crise financeira Business cycles Monetary policy Fiscal policy Output gap Financial crisis