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Dinâmicas da inflação na economia portuguesa (2000-2024)
| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projeto de graduação_2022110177 | 936.45 KB | Adobe PDF |
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Abstract(s)
Este trabalho analisa a evolução da inflação em Portugal entre 2000 e 2024, no contexto da zona euro e da política monetária comum conduzida pelo Banco Central Europeu (BCE). O estudo tem como objetivo principal compreender a trajetória da inflação portuguesa neste período, e apresenta como objetivos específicos clarificar conceitos fundamentais, identificar principais determinantes da inflação e analisar a sua evolução em resposta a fatores internos e choques externos. É adotada uma abordagem qualitativa, assente em revisão bibliográfica e análise estatística com base em dados do BCE. A análise é organizada por subperíodos económicos relevantes: (i) estabilidade pós-adesão ao euro (2000–2007), (ii) crise financeira e Memorando de Entendimento (2007–2013), (iii) retoma económica (2013–2019), (iv) pandemia de Covid-19 (2019–2021) e (v) choques exógenos como a crise energética e a guerra na Ucrânia (2021–2024). Inicia-se com a clarificação conceptual, medida e explicação das causas da inflação, e prossegue-se com a apresentação dos subperíodos e análise empírica da evolução da inflação em Portugal, com implicações para a formulação de políticas económicas.
O estudo revela que a inflação em Portugal surgiu de causas domésticas e internacionais, sendo a política do BCE um motor decisivo. A queda recente, que coloca a taxa perto da meta de 2%, sugere um regresso à normalidade, mas mantém o país exposto a novos choques.
This paper analyzes the evolution of inflation in Portugal between 2000 and 2024, in the contexto of the eurozone and the common monetary policy conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB). The study's main objective is to understand the trajectory of Portuguese inflation in this period, and its specific objectives are to clarify fundamental concepts, identify the main determinants of inflation and analyze its evolution in response to internal factors and external shocks. A qualitative approach is adopted, based on a literature review and statistical analysis using ECB data. The analysis is organized by relevant economic sub-periods: (i) stability after joining the euro (2000-2007), (ii) financial crisis and Memorandum of Understanding (2007-2013), (iii) economic recovery (2013-2019), (iv) Covid-19 pandemic (2019-2021) and (v) exogenous shocks such as the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine (2021-2024). It begins with a conceptual clarification, measurement and explanation of the causes of inflation, and continues with a presentation of the sub-periods and empirical analysis of the evolution of inflation in Portugal, with implications for the formulation of economic policies. The study reveals that inflation in Portugal has arisen from domestic and international causes, with the ECB's policy being a decisive driver. The recent fall, which puts the rate close to the 2% target, suggests a return to normality, but keeps the country exposed to new shocks.
This paper analyzes the evolution of inflation in Portugal between 2000 and 2024, in the contexto of the eurozone and the common monetary policy conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB). The study's main objective is to understand the trajectory of Portuguese inflation in this period, and its specific objectives are to clarify fundamental concepts, identify the main determinants of inflation and analyze its evolution in response to internal factors and external shocks. A qualitative approach is adopted, based on a literature review and statistical analysis using ECB data. The analysis is organized by relevant economic sub-periods: (i) stability after joining the euro (2000-2007), (ii) financial crisis and Memorandum of Understanding (2007-2013), (iii) economic recovery (2013-2019), (iv) Covid-19 pandemic (2019-2021) and (v) exogenous shocks such as the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine (2021-2024). It begins with a conceptual clarification, measurement and explanation of the causes of inflation, and continues with a presentation of the sub-periods and empirical analysis of the evolution of inflation in Portugal, with implications for the formulation of economic policies. The study reveals that inflation in Portugal has arisen from domestic and international causes, with the ECB's policy being a decisive driver. The recent fall, which puts the rate close to the 2% target, suggests a return to normality, but keeps the country exposed to new shocks.
Description
Projeto de Graduação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Licenciado em Ciências Empresariais.
Keywords
Inflação Economia portuguesa Zona euro Crise financeira Banco Central Europeu Política monetária Inflation Portuguese economy Euro zone Financial crisis European Central Bank Monetary policy